[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 6N30W 3N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 22W-27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
29W-37W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
3N38W 3N42W 4.5N45W 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING SEWARD ACROSS THE AREA...
AT 15 UTC RANGING FROM NEAR BILOXI MS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO
27N93W INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 24.5N98W BANKING AGAINST THE SIERRA
MADRES.  A ROPE CLOUD IS SEEN ON SATELLITE S OF 28N WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT... STRONGEST N OF
29N.  WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AND UP TO 25 KT IN
A SMALL AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.   THIS FRONT IS
ERASING THE MOSTLY ELY WINDS OF YESTERDAY AND THE WINDS ARE NOW
MOSTLY SLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.. THOUGH QUITE LIGHT IN THE SW
GULF.   GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF AS IT MOVES
THRU THE DAY INTO TOMORROW.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N E OF 91W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET ROTATING SOUTHWARD OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF
NEAR 28N91W. ELSEWHERE...WSW FLOW COVERS THE AREA.  FRONT IS NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS THE ONE LAST WEEKEND BUT WILL STILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...LEAVING THE AREA SAT AM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS W OF 80W.  SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN.  CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 70W WITH MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 65W.  A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION W OF 78W N OF JAMAICA.  FARTHER
E...AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES EASTWARD
TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.  AT UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WEAK TROUGHING FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 68W N OF 24W.. FUELING TSTMS ALONG AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N67W TO 30N63W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN
60W-65W NOW EXITING BERMUDA.  WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THE W ATLC DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT... LIKELY UPPING THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE
TOMORROW.  LARGE SPRAWLING 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 34N34W DOMINATES
THE REST OF THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG TRADES 20 TO 25 KT... UP
TO 30 KT... OVER A VAST AREA E OF 60W S OF 27N.  IT IS STRIKING
HOW MUCH THIS HAS CHANGED SINCE EARLY DECEMBER WHERE WEAK
RIDGING DOMINATED.  THIS LARGE-SCALE CHANGE MIGHT BE DUE TO
INCREASING COOLING OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC TOWARD LA NINA...
WHICH TENDS TO ENHANCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BENEATH THE HIGH... CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE
RULE.  NO BIG CHANGE IS LIKELY TO THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
OR SO WITH STRONG RIDGING LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE E ATLC.  AT
UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER RIDGING IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-60W
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N27W TO A WEAK
LOW NEAR 21N46W CONTINUING TO 19N53W.  W TO WSW FLOW IS S OF THE
TROUGH WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS S OF 17N E OF 55W.  MODEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ATLC HIGH IS PRODUCING
A LITTLE MORE ITCZ CONVECTION THAN AVERAGE.

$$
BLAKE

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