[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W EQ30W 1N40W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 33W-44W AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE WESTERN GULF...WEST OF 89W...THE FLOW
HAS TURNED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER TEXAS. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF...NORTH OF 26N. NEAR THE GULF
COAST...THERE IS A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT FROM THE AREA...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO BE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. COLD AIR DRIVEN BY VERY BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME NW
GULF NEAR 28N94W. ELSEWHERE...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF 70W...AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES
EASTWARD TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR
EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WHERE THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N38W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 35N15W 30N16W 27N16W.  BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
DIMINISHING WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 62W-68W. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-65W. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NAMELY
FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN 30W-60W...AND FROM 12N-30N BETWEEN 10W-50W.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS FROM 55W EASTWARD TO AFRICA NORTH 0F
15N.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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