[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 4N45W 4N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-30W AND FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH E OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS AND IS LOCATED NEAR 29N93W.  STRONG NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF E OF 89W WITH VELOCITIES
OF 25-30KT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WINDS WILL BEING TO SLACKEN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 95W...WHILE THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 21N76W 16N90W MOVING SE.  WIND
REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE S
OF THE FRONT AND W OF 80W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO 15-20 KT NE WIND
FLOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE NEAR
15N-17N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
30N70W 24N72W 21N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  ELSEWHERE...A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N36W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N59W AND E
TO NEAR 32N14W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE E OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N77W AND CONTINUING
S TO NEAR 23N80W.  A RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

$$
JP/DS



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