[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 2N20W 3N35W EQ50W. ISOLATED
CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140-160 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 9W-16W AND BETWEEN
33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. AT
15Z...ONLY A TROUGH LEFT OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF FROM
30N84W TO 26N86W. AT UPPER LEVEL...SWLY WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING
SOME MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE
NW SECTOR OF THE GULF N OF 20N AND WEST OF 90W. DRY/SUBSIDENCE
AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N
GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOMORROW
EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF 80W.  THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING
SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER/GREATER ANTILLES.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS. ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN BRISK TRADES OVER THE
AREA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY CLOSE TO
VENEZUELA...THE ABC ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 22N77W CROSSING WESTERN
BAHAMAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO 3ON70W
AND BEYOND. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. THANKS TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN MOVING
WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 30 N
AND EAST OF 60W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
AFFECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N20W.
AND 20N34W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH RUNS ALONG 20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 70-100 KT IS SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NE OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N10W...WHERE
ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
GR


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