[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 34W-37W...
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 41W-44W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W.  HIGH PRESSURE
RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SE WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N AND W OF
87W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME CONVECTION TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N75W 23N76W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH.  A 1032 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N46W MOVING E.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 33N14W 30N17W 26N17W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N20W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC NAMELY
FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 30W-60W...AND FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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