[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AND THE EQUATOR
NEAR 52W. STRONG CELLS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 55W...MOSTLY EAST OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND 30N107W IN NORTHERN MEXICO...AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE IN ITS DEVELOPING STAGES. A RIDGE
FOLLOWS TO THE EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SECOND TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
THIS GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS
EAST OF 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ON
THE 12/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG
77W/78W FROM CUBA NEAR 20N TO 29N...MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N75W 29N71W BEYOND 32N70W.
ANOTHER AND SEPARATE TROUGH IS NORTH OF 30N...WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT WITH THAT ONE NEAR 32N77W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 31N44W BEYOND 32N51W. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE EVIDENT...AND THERE
IS NO WELL-DEFINED LINE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS BOUNDARY EITHER.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
NEAR 27N36W...IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N16W IN
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A TROUGH
GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER 21N21W AND 20N34W. A 1014 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N25W...WITH A TROUGH FROM 25N25W
TO 14N26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 3W AND 20W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARE NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 32W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FOUND
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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