[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 4N20W 5N33W 4N42W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W.
STRONG CELLS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. IT IS THE SUPPORT FOR A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH RUNS
FROM JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 30N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF JAMAICA
WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE 21N77W
TO 29N77W LINE IN THE GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS
TO RUN ALONG THE LINE FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG
76W/77W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND
70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N47W BEYOND 32N54W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR THE FRONT...IT MAY A GOOD
IDEA THAT SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH
AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N16W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AND TROUGH JUST WEST OF AFRICA ARE PART OF THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER TO THE
EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS...AND TO 12N25W.

$$
MT


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