[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N35W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
16N-19N...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-27W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5S-1N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 26N88W 18N93W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOVING E.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE THE GULF W OF 85W...WHILE UPPER
AIR MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE A NEW
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE E TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 13N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE ALL
OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM CUBA TO E HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N72W 20N74W
DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 72W-76W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N58W MOVING E.  A 1014 MB LOW IS BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N23W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N23W 14N30W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 55W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N16W PRODUCING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 55W HAS ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net