[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111643
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N17W 3N41W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 2N12W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 9N15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE US COVERING THE N GULF
N OF 25N W OF FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER
EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N89W TO 23N91W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO S
MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS
INLAND OVER NE LOUISIANA AND A 1024 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W BUILDING A RIDGE S OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO
INCLUDING THE FAR W GULF. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS COVERS THE N
GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS N OF 26N INCLUDING THE
N GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND WILL
WASH OUT OVER THE W ATLC ON THU.

CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WEST OF 40W.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING
THE ATLC FROM 30W-80W...PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTENDS ALONG 29N67W TO 22N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DUE TO THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE
ATLC. WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR...CONVECTION IS LIMITED OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N
BETWEEN 74W-86W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT WEAKENING TRADE WINDS BY THU.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N13W TO A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 27N20W SW INTO THE
TROPICS NEAR 15N33W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N24W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N23W THEN
W TO 16N36W. MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH DRY UPPER
AIR THUS LIMITING ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE
LOW FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 16W-23W INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST
CANARY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO
100 KT IS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N30W TO OVER AFRICA
NEAR 19N15W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E TO OVER AFRICA BY THU.

$$
WALLACE




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