[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...1S40W...
2S47W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN
AFRICA COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N19W 5N24W 4N31W
2N37W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...AND BETWEEN
42W AND 43W IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM THE U.S.A. CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE LOW CENTER
WITH THIS TROUGH HAS GONE FROM EASTERN MISSOURI SIX HOURS AGO
TO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA NOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW
RUNS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT APPARENT ANYMORE AND PROBABLY HAS BECOME
PART OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. A BAND OR BELT OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH...TO ITS WEST...
NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 90W. THIS CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AND BECOME STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE. A SUPPOSEDLY BETTER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LITTLE BIT OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI/
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 17N. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA FROM 11/0600 UTC SHOW GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW...AWAY
FROM THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N45W TO 29N50W 27N60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N70W...POSSIBLY
RELATED TO WHAT USED TO BE THE REST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 32N64W 26N67W 23N71W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF
MOROCCO. EVERYTHING IS TIED TO A LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 26N23W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
17N28W...AND THEN WESTWARD TO 16N50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WEST OF 27W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 25N23W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THIS LOW
CENTER TO 27N22W AND 23N20W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RUNS FROM
23N20W TO 20N22W 16N25W TO 16N36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 19W AND
24W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 32N
BETWEEN 16W AND 25W.

$$
MT



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