[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...
1S40W...2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W AND 18W...AND FROM
4N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND
40W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE U.S.A. CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD...THE LOW CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH
CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N86W 25N88W 18N91W. THIS
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST AND BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE. A SUPPOSEDLY BETTER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LITTLE BIT OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 79W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 29N50W 28N62W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N66W 20N69W...POSSIBLY RELATED
TO WHAT USED TO BE A STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
22N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST
WEST OF MOROCCO. EVERYTHING IS TIED TO A LOW CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 25N23W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER
TO 18N30W...AND THEN WESTWARD TO 14N48W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WEST OF 27W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 24N24W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
27N23W AND 23N21W. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 23N21W TO 20N24W
18N28W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N28W TO
19N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN
17W AND 27W.

$$
MT


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