[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N11W 6N20W 2N30W 1N40W...THE EQUATOR AT 51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN
25W AND 29W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTHWARD TO 3S BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF BRAZIL TOWARD MAURITANIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOME
AREAS WEST OF 90W NOW. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS
NOW REACHING THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. IT IS BEING PUSHED BY
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...IN WEST TEXAS NOW...CONNECTED TO A LOW
CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN IN THE GULF WATERS FOR MUCH OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARED THAT A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER
WAS TRYING TO FORM AROUND 25N91W ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS PRESENT THERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COMPARATIVELY COLDER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES FROM -55C TO -59C ARE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
SEEN FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 89W 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...THE LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT
AS EASILY IDENTIFIED AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 20N WEST OF 80W
OVER THE WATERS. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEST OF
70W IS WESTERLY...BECOMING VARIABLE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AREA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND OTHERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND STILL OTHERS SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 30N51W TO 26N63W TO 22N70W TO THE
EASTERN END OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS RE-POSITIONED FROM THE 10/00 UTC
ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO FIT MORE WITH THE CLOUD LINE IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEST OF 50W. THE JET STREAM FROM
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS STILL IS IN THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...NOW SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 29N50W BEYOND 35N40W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING AGAIN NOW...NEAR 24N25W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW CENTER TO
29N20W AND 24N19W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 24N19W TO 20N23W
18N30W AND 18N38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 19W AND
30W...EVERYTHING SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW CENTER.

$$
MT



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