[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N11W 5N20W 2N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...THE EQUATOR AT
50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W...AND FROM THE COAST
OF BRAZIL TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND
18W. AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS PUSHING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE AREA OF THE ITCZ NEAR 5N45W NORTHEASTWARD
TO 10N32W TO MAURITANIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTHWEST OF 25N97W 30N92W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPING MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER.
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR
30N78W INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 28N87W AND 28N83W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. THE BAND OF MOISTURE
JUST WEST OF ALL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF
THE NEXT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS GETTING READY FOR
ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 18N86W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AREA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WHICH ARE FOUND MOSTLY FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
56W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 30N51W TO 24N60W TO 21N70W TO
20N75W. A TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 25N55W TO
20N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NEAR 30N78W INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 28N87W AND 28N83W TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO
24N BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING
AGAIN NOW...NEAR 26N25W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE LOW CENTER TO 29N21W AND 25N19W. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM 20N25W TO 19N28W TO 19N33W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 24N26W. A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDS MARKS THE
COLD FRONT IN THIS CASE. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW
IS IN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT AND FLORIDA...AND
IN BETWEEN THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER WITH OCCLUDED FRONT...AND
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY.

$$
MT


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