[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N23W 5N34W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 2S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
14W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N W
OF 33W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N W OF 91W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W EXTENDING SW INTO
MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS GENERATING A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE A
1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A RIDGE PUSHING
INTO THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS ALSO PUSHING ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL
BE IN THE NW GULF LATER TODAY DRYING OUT THE AREA. A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE COLD FRONT GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN
100/125 NM OF LINE FROM 21N92W TO OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER SW UPPER FLOW FROM THE BROAD
UPPER HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF TODAY AND BEGIN TO WEAK ON WED...WASHING OUT IN THE W
ATLC ON THU.

CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WEST OF 40W.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N68W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 28N87W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N45W SW TO 29N53W WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 27N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W. TYPICAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
AREA...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EXCEPT SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 75W.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W
DUE TO A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-86W. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE W ATLC LATE WED INTO THU WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT WEAKENING TRADE WINDS BY
THU.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N15W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N25W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE
TROPICS NEAR 16N45W TO 14N50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N25W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG
28N20W TO 23N20W THEN AS A COLD FRONT WSW ALONG 17N27W TO
16N38W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH DRY UPPER AIR THUS
LIMITING ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM
30N19W TO 21N30W. A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90
TO 120 KT IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 12N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
25N15W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC IS
BRIDGING THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT...THUS WEAKENING THAT
FEATURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E TO OVER AFRICA WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES WEAKENING BY THU.

$$
WALLACE




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