[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE AXIS BETWEEN 6W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY
IN THE GULF. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA COASTLINE NEAR 28N80W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS FROM 10-15 KTS ARE
BLOWING EAST OF 90W...WEST OF 90W...THERE ARE STRONGER
SOUTHERLIES NEAR 20 KTS AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT OVER TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR
FLORIDA TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE GULF WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 86W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N58W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG
32N65W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA . SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
BROKEN CLOUDS EXIST NEAR THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N38W.
THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 25W-50W
NORTH OF 16N. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS HIGH TO BE FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED NEAR 34N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG
29N19W AND FLATTENS TO 28N32W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 50 NM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE PRESENT ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TOMORROW.
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST CENTER LOCATION IS NEAR 26N22W.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N45W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 30W-48W. IN THE E TROPICS...A WESTERLY JET PERSISTS
WITH 80 TO 100 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM 16N30W ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 21N13W. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE
EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 30N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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