[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N35W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 4S-2N AND EAST OF THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SWLY UPPER FLOW IS
SHEARING MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N-81W. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE E INTO THE ATLC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODERATE RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE W GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH MOVES E ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE SE SECTOR OF THE
GULF AND WEST OF 90W WITH CLEAR SKIES OFF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG
92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N61W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TYPICAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 31N71W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SWLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE
BASIN BUILDING INTO THE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER S AMERICA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
BEYOND 30N50W. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OCEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADEWINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 37N38W
COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 50W. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES ARE
SHOWING A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST ENTERING THE AREA ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS FROM 30N18W TO 29N35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM OVER S AMERICA NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BEYOND 30N50W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 15N FROM 30W-48W. IN THE E TROPICS...
WESTERLY JET REMAINS WITH 80 TO 100 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE
16N30W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 21N13W.
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN
30W-60W...THE EXCEPTION ARE THE NW AND SE CORNERS.

$$
GR




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