[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 26W...1S30N 1S40W 2S47W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA WHOSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 5W AND 10W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 9N12 6N20W 9N28W 8N35W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...AFTER THE LAST COLD FRONT...
IS INDICATED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA INTO
FLORIDA IS NORTHWESTERLY. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N65W TO 20N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 20N70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ITS SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH HAITI...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N76W
AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR 10N81W. A SURFACE 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N70W...ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ITS SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N76W AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER NEAR 10N81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA TO
20N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N58W BEYOND 32N54W.
MOST OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH A MODERATE LEVEL OR DEGREE OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 70W...AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
EAST...WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF THE 32N61W TO 26N65W TO 20N70W COLD FRONT.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 20N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 27N58W BEYOND 32N54W. A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NOW NORTH OF THE AREA...IS
FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ONE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THROUGH 37N21W TO 29N22W...
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THIS TROUGH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PHASE WITH A COMPARATIVELY MORE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
WHICH RUNS FROM 23N42W TO 7N51W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONG UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS WEST HAVE CAUSED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
MT




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