[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 25W...1S30N 1S40W 2S46W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN
3W AND 9W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM 3N TO
5N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...AFTER THE LAST COLD FRONT...
IS INDICATED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA INTO
FLORIDA IS NORTHWESTERLY. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO
21N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N70W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W. A SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 21N70W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 62W...FROM THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA TO 20N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N59W BEYOND
30N57W. MOST OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH A MODERATE LEVEL OR
DEGREE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST...WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY. FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF THE 30N64W 21N70W COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM 20N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N59W BEYOND
30N57W. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N39W.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ONE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO 31N22W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN LINE
WITH...NOT THAT CERTAIN...WITH A COMPARATIVELY MORE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WHICH RUNS THROUGH 31N22W TO 19N45W TO
8N52W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N50W. THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS WEST
HAVE CAUSED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
MT



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