[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N21W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-30W. MANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...COLD
AIR DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS IS BRINGING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON ACROSS FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF 88W. WEST OF THE
HIGH...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
EXIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE
HIGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
TOMORROW. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD MILDER WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE EASTERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-WEST U.S. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA.
BOTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE MOVING EASTWARD. DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 23N69W
EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE EAST...WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING THANKS-IN-PART
TO A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N40W. THIS
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE REMNANT LOW OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
26N56W AT 07/18 UTC. SINCE THEN...THIS REMNANT LOW HAS APPEARED
TO HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 32W-42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS WEST HAS CAUSED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A WESTERLY JET WITH 70 TO 100 KT WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 17N15W. DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE AREA NORTH OF 15N.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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