[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...THE EQUATOR AT
48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N18W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE AFRICA COAST EAST OF 14W...FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 33N66W TO A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N76W TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N90W TO THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
22N97W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR FLORIDA TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N70W...ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ITS SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 15N75W TO 14N78W AND 13N83W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLY LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N72W 16N76W 14N84W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NOT REALLY CLOSE TO THE ITCZ THERE FROM
PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO 12N WEST OF 80W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN..BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS RIDING
ON TOP OF THE ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE MOVING ON TOP OF THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF
OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE. THIS CLOUDINESS IS FOUND BETWEEN
48W AND 76W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
OF CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS SEEN
ON THE 09/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N76W TO 25N75W BEYOND 32N55W. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 85 KT TO 110 KT ARE TENDING
TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM BETWEEN 55W AND 75W.
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FRANCE TO
A LOW CENTER NEAR 30N22W. THIS 30N22W LOW CENTER IS PART OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO AS IT WAS DIPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW CENTER NEAR
32N18W IS CONNECTED TO A COLD FRONT TO 28N20W TO 28N32W. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W.
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE PRESENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. A THICK-ENOUGH CLOUD
LINE EASILY MARKS THE COLD FRONT AT THIS HOUR. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THIS EASTERN ATLANTIC FRONT AND
THE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO MORE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR
17N43W...THIS LOW CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR WITHIN AT LEAST 720 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

$$
MT

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