[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N20W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
4S-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
15W-17W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 24W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1016 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
27N97W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO S
MEXICO ALONG 22N97W 17N96W 25N100W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 90W.  EXPECT THE FRONT OVER
THE N GULF TO DRIFT N TO NEAR 31N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE LOW CENTER TO DISSIPATE.  SLY WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR ANOTHER DAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 65W-71W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH
AXIS ALONG 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  EXPECT A SURGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE TRADEWINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT A GALE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N73W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S TO 28N80W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N46W TO 25N60W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO
26N72W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N42W 24N57W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N22W.  IN THE TROPICS A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF S
AMERICA ALONG 14N50W 6N54W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 48W-54W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 30W.  A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 4N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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