[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N21W 1N26W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 1W-8W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN14W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W NNE
OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BEYOND NORTH CAROLINA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 27N96W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICO NEAR 18N96W THE TURNING SHARPLY N ALONG
THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SECOND STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER THE FAR NE GULF N OF 28N E OF
85W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
LOW/FRONTS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES BUT
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE N GULF
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 80W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BELOW
GALE FORCE BUT REMAIN STRONG. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO WED AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 70W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 34N71W WITH A  COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 29N78W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 29N W OF 65W TO INLAND OVER SE US. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W SW OVER PUERTO RICO INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N44W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N50W THEN W TO 24N58W WHERE IT PULLS
UP NEAR STATIONARY TO 26N70W, A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N44W TO 25N52W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N53W TO BEYOND 32N42W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E ATLC S OF 20N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 3N44W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
14N54W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 4N57W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 50W-57W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N E
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1031 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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