[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N35W 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-2N
BETWEEN 12W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 39W-41.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FAR
W ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE
AREA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27.5N94.5W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE
MEXICAN COAST JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ...THEN TURNING MAINLY N
ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N90W 28.584W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS CLEAR SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS GIVING THE AREA CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER GULF TUE
AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALSO COVERS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE
DRIEST AIR FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25-35 KT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 53-54W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A JET ALOFT OF 70-80
KT EXTENDS ALONG 14N54W 19N65W TO INLAND AFRICA NEAR 20N16W.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST OFF OF THE SE U.S. NORTH OF THE
ATLANTIC AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W
EXTENDING SW TO 27N67W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY TO NEAR
27N72W. A BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 2ON68W. A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH. EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE FROM A HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
AZORES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING ALONG 54-55W S OF 15N TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 46W-55W.

$$
GR



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