[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 1N20W 1N30W EQ40W TO
1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL AND N OF THE EQ TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 10W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 1019 MB LOW PRES NEAR 28N93W THEN
SW TO JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THERE ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND
MOSTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURE ARE FOUND EAST OF THE FRONT THANKS TO A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W AND COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE
GULF SOUTH OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF TO 21N98W TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER S MEXICO COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC DIPS SOUTH...ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THEN EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
EASTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE SEA. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT
ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FAVORING MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N53W AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. WEST OF THE TROUGH...AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND MOST OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA...
WHERE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS OBSERVED. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A
WEAKENING SFC REFLECTION WITH THE AXIS ALONG 3ON51W 25N61W
20N60W. A LINE OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE
DOMINATES THE AREA FROM A HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 32N24W. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND MOVES SEWARD.

$$
GR



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