[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 1N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 1N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO
28N90W AND THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W
AND THEN TURNS NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO TO 25N101W TO 32N107W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED N
AND W OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE E. AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
GULF AND CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION ALSO COVERS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN.
FURTHER E A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH A JET CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR SE
PART. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 30 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 25N55W TO NEAR PUERTO
RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N48W AND MOVING E 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W
AND 44W. A JET ALOFT IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR 14N62W TO 20N50W TO
23N30W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS. NO
PRONOUNCED FEATURES ALOFT ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
CAB

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