[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N15W 1N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO
1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4S-2N
BETWEEN 25W-30W AND FROM INLAND S. AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN
40W-52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 1E-5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 1500
UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW IN THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N73W WSWWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1021
MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N94W SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO
NEAR 22N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THERE ALONG THE
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND MOSTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER CONTINUES. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS ARE S
OF 25N WITH 10-15 KT SOUTHERLIES N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N95W AND COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING
VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR S OF 26N. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWARD BUT TO REMAIN MOSTLY N OF 25N EXCEPT
FOR THE SURGING OVER MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
NEAR AND NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER S MEXICO COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF HISPANIOLA SUPPLYING LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.  AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC DIPS S COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM
HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALREADY IN
PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED PATCHES OF SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM 20-25 KT...THE
STIFF EASTERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING THE TOPOGRAPHY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA POOLING CLOUDS AND ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR AND MILD WEATHER COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 45W-70W. THIS TROUGH HAS A
WEAKENING SFC REFLECTION WITH THE AXIS ALONG 33N52W 21N68W. A
LINE OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
RULE E OF 50W THANKS TO TWO SFC HIGHS NEAR 32N23W AND 40N37W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR 19N32W IS ENHANCING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF THE
UL ILL-DEFINED CENTER. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 13N-18N. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SFC HIGHS TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST AS A POLAR LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND
MOVES NEWARD.

$$
CANGIALOSI

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