[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W EQ30W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-31W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN
25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W PRODUCING
WARM 15-20 KT SELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF
92W...AND OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS FAIR SKIES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  90-110 KT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED N OF 27N.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W FROM W PANAMA
TO W CUBA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
83W-90W.  THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER E CUBA.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 73W-76W.  20-25 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W...ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO
RICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A BROAD RIDGE WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE STRETCHES FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOMORROW.  THE TRADES WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM
32N53W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS N OF 5N AND W OF 40W EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
14N42W.  ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR
22N14W.  A 70-90 KT W/WSW JET LIES ALONG 9N40W 19N30N 19N17W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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