[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
5N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 20W. CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-31W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
1030 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N71W...
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO COASTAL SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE LATEST CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
FROM 16/0300 UTC SHOW A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF WATERS...
AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BARELY REACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN END OF CUBA...AND IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEATHER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
MOST PROBABLY IS THE REMNANT OF THE OLD SOUTHERN END OF THE
COLD FRONT...NOW IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS TROUGH IS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA...IS PURELY EASTERLY. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR COVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N53W TO 30N58W TO 24N64W...TO 20N74W.  HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BLOWING AWAY FROM THE STILL-EXISTING CLOUD BAND WHICH HAS BEEN
IDENTIFYING THE COLD FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STILL-EXISTING CLOUD BAND IS ALONG 21N74W 23N64W BEYOND 32N54W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRAIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW NOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CLOUD BAND WHICH REPRESENTS
THE FRONT. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO
BE FORMING NOW NEAR 16N43W. IT IS AT THE EDGE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN
MOROCCO TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN MOROCCO
AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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