[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151700
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N14W 1N26W EQ36W 0.5S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 7W-12W FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF THANKS TO A 1032 MB
SFC HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TODAY IS A MUCH MILDER DAY
THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW AS THE SFC HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST
ALLOWING S/SSW RETURN FLOW FROM 10-20 KT TO COVER THE REGION. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH LIES ALONG 25N88W TO 29N87W. A SWIRL OF LOW
BROKEN CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALONG THE
TROUGH. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW STRETCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 28N AND
VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR N OF 28N E OF 96W. AS THE SFC HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NE...AWAY FROM THE AREA...MILD TO WARM
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GFS FORECASTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF ON SAT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED RAIN AND A
CHANGE IN
AIRMASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 81W/82W FROM 11N-20N. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD DRIVEN BY THE EASTERLY TRADES NEAR 20-25 KT. EAST OF
80W...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS DRIVEN WESTWARD BY THE TRADE
WINDS. THICKER...MORE ORGANIZED CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA AND HAITI
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS....A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THE DRIEST AIR IS S OF 15N.
THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FAIR
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NE OF
FLORIDA SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N75W. THIS IS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N52W
26N62W TO NEAR THE HAITIAN COASTLINE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST A 1034 MB
HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH IS
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC E OF 55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE AREA W OF 60W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA W OF 22N. EAST OF 60W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
14N42W. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N17W. A 70-90 KT W/WSW JET LIES ALONG 9N40W
19N30N 19N17W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE
SEVERAL SUNDERED MILES TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.


$$
CANGIALOSI


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