[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
8N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W 2N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
4N BETWEEN 21W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N10W 20N20W
21N33W 12N50W MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST UNDER UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SHOWERS ARE IN THIS CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THE 20N10W 12N50W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE 1029 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N69W...
TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. ONE BRANCH THEN REACHES
24N94W AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
INLAND FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...
TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND SPEEDS AT 350 MB AND HIGHER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
AT 15/0900 UTC...RANGE FROM 50 NM TO 80 NM WEST OF 90W...AND
FROM 60 NM TO 90 NM EAST OF 90W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IN 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N52W TO 27N60W TO 20N69W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 14N79W...
CURVING TO 9N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THE 15/09300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR FLORIDA SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N52W TO 27N60W TO 20N69W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT GOES FROM THE 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N69W TO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT...FROM THE 1031 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 32N37W TO 27N49W
24N54W. THE REMAINING PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH FLORIDA A FEW DAYS AGO...NOW IS ALONG 25N62W
BEYOND 32N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS
PRESENT NEAR 33N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N54W 28N58W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N60W 25N67W 22N80W.
A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING
NOW NEAR 15N42W. IT IS AT THE EDGE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER IN
MOROCCO/ALGERIA NEAR 30N4W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 24N17W JUST
SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE
MOROCCO LOWS/TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW CENTER.

$$
MT



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