[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
7N11W 1N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N5W 3N10W 1N20W 1N30W TO THE EQUATOR
AT 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SOUTH OF 20N16W 20N36W 14N47W 10N55W MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST UNDER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS ARE IN THIS CLOUDINESS SOUTH
OF THE 20N16W 10N55W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE 1029 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N72W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND SPEEDS AT 350 MB AND
HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA AT 15/0300 UTC...RANGE FROM 55 NM TO 80 NM
WEST OF 90W...AND FROM 80 NM TO 100 NM EAST OF 90W. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING
A MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO THE STATES ALONG THE GULF COAST...
INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CLIP THE
NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
20N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 14N79W...CURVING TO 10N80W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 15/0300 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BROUGHT IN BY
THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR
FLORIDA SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N53W TO 25N62W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N62W TO 20N70W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT GOES FROM THE
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...FROM
THE 1034 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N31W TO 32N38W 26N51W 23N57W
19N63W. THE REMAINING PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH FLORIDA A FEW DAYS AGO...NOW IS ALONG 24N65W
BEYOND 32N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS
PRESENT NEAR 33N63W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 27N62W 23N70W 20N74W. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING NOW NEAR 21N48W.
IT IS SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER IN MOROCCO
NEAR 31N5W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 25N16W JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE MOROCCO LOWS/TROUGH
AND THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW CENTER.

$$
MT


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