[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
7N11W 3N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE EQUATOR AT 24W...8N32W 15N27W 20N18W CURVING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 5W...AND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 4W AND
10W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND 10W...AND SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW...PASSING
THROUGH 31N75W 25N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN THE INTERIOR OF
MEXICO FROM 17N96W TO 25N100W CAUGHT AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS.
A STORM EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF MEXICO. OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EAST OF 30N82W
25N90W 22N98W STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
RUNS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 12/0900 UTC AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE RELATED TO THE
1028 MB CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR
15N74W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WHICH IS PRODUCING THE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE
AREA TOMORROW...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WINDS AND SEAS...LATER TODAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE FRONT
TO PROPAGATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING BY MID-WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ASSOCIATED 994 MB DEVELOPING STORM
NOW IS IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC U.S.A.
A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 28N NEAR
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W 25N80W...
TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W TO 75W INCLUDING IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N51W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N36W TO 27N44W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND IN MOROCCO. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING WITHIN 400 NM AROUND THE LOW. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY A SWLY JET STREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM 7N30W TO 17N16W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net