[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
7N11W 3N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE EQUATOR AT 24W...7N32W 15N26W 20N22W CURVING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF 11W...AND SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW...PASSING
THROUGH 31N80W 25N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN THE INTERIOR OF
MEXICO FROM 17N96W TO 25N100W CAUGHT AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EAST OF 22N98W 26N90W 30N83W STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD.
STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE
SURFACE RIDGE RELATED TO THE 1028 MB CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY
15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH RUNS FROM
NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH
OF HAITI NEAR 15N74W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 19N88W 23N80W...MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WHICH IS PRODUCING THE
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...
AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TODAY/THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
WINDS AND SEAS...LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE FRONT TO PROPAGATE FROM HISPANIOLA
TO NICARAGUA ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING
BY MID-WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ASSOCIATED 1001 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE
CENTER AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE U.S.A. COASTLINE IN
NORTH CAROLINA. A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA FROM 40W TO 75W INCLUDING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N44W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
RUNS FROM 28N44W TO 26N50W TO 24N60W TO 23N63W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WITHIN 175 NM
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SLOWLY MOVING LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150
NM NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS UP AGAINST THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR 26N16W.
A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO.
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING WITHIN 400 NM
AROUND THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY A
SWLY JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM 7N30W TO
17N16W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
MT

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