[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112314
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 11W-17W. WEAKER CONVECTION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW OVER
S. CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MEXICO ALONG 32N82W
24N89W 17N94W AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.  MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA BETWEEN FT MYERS AND TAMPA MOVING NEWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ABOUT 200 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. EAST
OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE SWLY NEAR 15-20 KTS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN. IN MEXICO...UPSLOPE
WINDS ARE CAUSING CLOUDS TO BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
THE SIERRA MADRE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH A 110-130 KT JET N OF 25N. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE GULF TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THANKS-IN-PART
TO A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 89W FROM 18N-24W. THERE IS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR
15N74W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E
0F 85W. VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS FROM 82W EASTWARD S OF
19N. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING IN W OF 85W. THE
SFC HIGH WHICH IS PRODUCING THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MOVE TO THE NE...AWAY FROM THE AREA...TOMORROW AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WINDS
AND SEAS...TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GFS
FORECASTS THE FRONT TO PROPAGATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING BY MID-WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT
ARE MOVING OFF THE U.S. COASTLINE. ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA...N/NNW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W-75W INCLUDING THE
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N54W
AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 26N42W. BETWEEN THE SFC HIGHS...A WEAK
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N37W
26N50W AND THEN BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N69W.
BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SLOW MOVING LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. FARTHER
EAST...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N16W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG 14W SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. BROKEN
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING WITHIN 400 NM AROUND
THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY A SWLY JET
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM 7N30W TO 17N16W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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