[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6.5N11W 2N20W 1N33W 2S44W.  ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 4N BETWEEN 3W-9W...S OF 3N FROM 30W-37W AND S OF 1.5N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS COVER MOST OF THE GULF SAVE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN 30-45 NM.  GALES HAVE LEFT THE GULF AS
THE E COAST NOR'EASTER DEPARTS THE AREA.  THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF FLORIDA AS COOL AIR SPILLS INTO
THE STATE.  THE ONLY THING THAT MAY KEEP THE PENINSULA FROM
GETTING TOO COLD IS THE CLOUDY SKIES THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS PUSHING THE COLDEST DAY BACK UNTIL TUE
MORNING.  UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA INTO THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.. CURRENTLY NEAR ARKANSAS... AND
COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN FLURRIES
IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND THE TAMPA AREA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.  A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC W OF 60W...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...NOW
FROM NEAR 31N70W THRU ANDROS ISLAND INTO CENTRAL CUBA.  IN THE
CARIBBEAN... THE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN SW
INTO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS NEAR 16.5N85W INTO
HONDURAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO 15.5N93W.  THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 300 NM ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FARTHER E... LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH IS FROM NW VENEZULEA TO JUST E
OF BERMUDA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SE OF
THE FRONT.  TRADES HAVE SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD... LYING FROM NEAR JAMAICA TO SE HONDURAS BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1030 MB HIGH IS NEAR 32N41W BRINGING STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE
TRADES TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 60W.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE
ITCZ.  UPPER TROUGH NIPS THE NE PART OF THE AREA ALONG 32N24W TO
26N26W WITH GENTLE RIDGING OVER THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC.  FARTHER S... MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 17N32W TO 5N43W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THE TROUGH THRU THE CARIBBEAN TO
25N.  MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE E ATLC WITH HIGH CLOUDS
DOTTING THE E ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDES INTO W AFRICA.  THE ITCZ
IS FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION.

$$
BLAKE

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