[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N35W 1N40W 1N50W.
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND
ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-20W AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM
-3N AND BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF 26N FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO TEXAS COAST. AT 15 Z...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N70W THEN CONTINUES
MAINLY SW ACROSS WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF. A BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF 27N. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRIP THE STATE OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD HOLD FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRI NIGHT/SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA. AT 15 Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW SECTOR OF THE BASIN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS RELATED TO THE RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING BROKEN LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70 W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE N TO NE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  WEAK TO MODERATE E TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 31N70W EXTENDING SW ACROSS WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA. DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ATLC FROM 40W-75W. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N49W AND COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 40W AND A TROUGH...REMNANT OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND 40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND A 995 MB
GALE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N21W ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 30N18W TO
22.5N-22W THEN CONTINUES AS A DYING COLD FRONT ALONG 20N30W
23N38W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE AREA. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF
90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA. BOTH...THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE
W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A
LINE FROM 13N-40W TO 26N-15W AND INLAND OVER AFRICA INCLUDING
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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