[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N17W 3N25W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF 26N FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO TEXAS COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W INTO
THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W WHERE IT CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 20N93W AND
S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N93W. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF...
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA AND POOLING S
OF 24N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 93W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 1028 MB HIGH
OVER MISSISSIPPI/NE LOUISIANA. THE FRONT AND ANY ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE GULF LATER TODAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN FRI NIGHT/SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF OF LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 21N78W ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 15N88W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING SW ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ATLC FROM
40W-75W. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N52W AND
COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 40W AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND A
995 MB GALE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N23W ENTERING THE E ATLC FROM A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N17W ALONG 22N27W TO 27N38W. DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 29N INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE S WITH THE MEAN AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA COVERING THE FAR E
ATLC E OF 33W. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 16N32W TO
OVER AFRICA NEAR 23N15W. THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ARE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF THE
JETSTREAM TO 20N AND INLAND OVER AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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