[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N17W 1N29W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF 25N FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO
THE GULF TO NEAR 22N91W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A SECOND STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF AND
POOLING S OF 23N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT AND ANY
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE GULF LATER TODAY. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD HOLD FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA NW OF LINE FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRY AND CLEAR WITH WEAK TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR
W ATLC NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 45W-75W. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
28N51W AND COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 45W AND A REMNANT STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W.
BROAD DEEP LAYERED COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 45W. A RAPID MOVING COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND A
997 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N24W ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W
ALONG 24N38W TO 30N38W. DRY UPPER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
THIS LIMITING CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N AND OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE S WITH THE
MEAN AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA COVERING THE FAR E ATLC E OF 35W.
A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 15N35W TO OVER AFRICA
NEAR 24N15W. THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ARE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE JETSTREAM TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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