[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N30W EQ36W 2S39W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200
NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 30W. WEST OF 30W...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAPPED FROM
A 1013 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF ALONG 32N78W 24N87W AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. S OF
23N...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MOSTLY WITHIN
200 NM NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY FROM 15-20 KT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE ARE SW WINDS
NEAR 10-15 KTS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TX/MX BORDER
NEAR 27N99W. THIS IS SUPPLYING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW MORNING TAKING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
IT. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT/THU MORNING KEEPING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 19N87W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
EASTWARD ACROSS E CUBA AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 80W-89W. TRADE
WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE COMMON E OF 80W. THE TRADES ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL/E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH IN THE W ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 72W. DRY
UPPER AIR IS WIDESPREAD UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE DRIEST AIR E OF
65W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF SHOULD ENTER THE AREA TOMORROW
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE WINDS/SEAS BRIEFLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN U.S N 28N W
OF 70W. A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 40W-70W. AT THE
SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N51W. THIS SFC HIGH AND
UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N57W 27N65W AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO E CUBA. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE CUT OFF LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A 998 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 31N26W. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG
31N22W 26N26W 30N38W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED RAIN IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANTS FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 18W-24W. BROKEN CLOUDS
EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LIES E OF 35W AND COVERS THE FAR E ATLC TO
OVER AFRICA. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT ARE
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
5N40W...21N26W TO ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST TO BEYOND 32N11W. THE
JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE...HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS N OF 11N E OF 20W TO OVER NW AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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