[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W EQ30W EQN40W EQN50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE AXIS FROM 25W EASTWARD. WEST OF 25W...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE N CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SE OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE BANKED
UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO ABOUT 93W.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. THIS HIGH IS
PRODUCING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHERLY ESPECIALLY E OF 92W. SCATTERED COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD NEAR
THE SE U.S TOMORROW...COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TO THE GULF ON FRI. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WINDS...AND SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 38N59W AND ENTERS
THE AREA ALONG 32N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CUBA TO
NEAR 19N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
ALONG 30N67W 22N74W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE E OF 80W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N63W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W
AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. VERY DRY UPPER AIR
EXISTS BETWEEN 50W-70W FROM 5N-17N. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE CLOUDS ARE
DRIVEN BY THE 15 KT E/ENE TRADES. THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WEAK TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 45W-75W. AT THE SFC...A 1022 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W. THE SFC
AND UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND DRY UPPER
AIR IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NEWARD W OF 55W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 45W.
AT THE SFC...A 995 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N21W. GALE FORCE
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. A
COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N17W TO
21N24W THEN CONTINUES AS A DYING COLD FRONT TO 20N26W. LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT S OF 32N. A STRONG SW
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA. BOTH...THE JETSTREAM
AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A LINE FROM 12N32W TO 28N13W AND INLAND OVER
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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