[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N23W 3N31W 1N41W EQ52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND
EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE E COAST OF LOUISIANA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF REGION GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS. HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER N TEXAS  EXTENDS
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NW GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
SE TO 27N89W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT INTO
LATE MON INTO TUE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS RAPIDLY CROSSING THE
GULF AND BE IN THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N73W NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO INTO THE W
ATLC. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC IS PULLING UP
STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W EXTENDING TO NE NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE AND THE TRADES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY WED...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FOR
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE E US WITH
THE STRONG ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST W OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM E OF THE FRONT LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND 32N58W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FROM 35-56W
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N31W SW TO A
WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 17N43W TO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N53W.
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING SW TO 26N27W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N30W. DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLC S
OF 27N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 30W-65W. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
AFRICA COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 10N40W 18N29W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N15W.

$$
WALLACE


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