[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 1N30W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N85W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 26N89W 30N94W MOVING NE.
ELSEWHERE... AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 84W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLANTIC N OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W-90W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE OVER LOUISIANA
FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
MONDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO JAMAICA TO NE
NICARAGUA ALONG 21N75W 14N83W MOVING E.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  COOL 20-25 KT NE FLOW IS BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
15N AND E OF 80W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK TO BELIZE BY MONDAY
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N67W 21N75W
MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN
66W-69W.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 23N30W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.  A STEEP RIDGE IS FURTHER E...
NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH AXIS ALONG 60W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 7N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A STRONG
TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE TROUGH
WITH 80-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 12N40W TO W AFRICA NEAR
23N15W.

$$
FORMOSA


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