[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N21W 2N30W 1N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28-35W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED OVER THE SE USA WITH MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DOMINATES
THE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN GULF.  THE
DEEP TROUGH THAT SWEPT A FRONT THRU THE AREA IS LIFTING OUT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWING OVER THE W GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION S OF 28N.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PART OF
THE REGION.. BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE N AND E GULF THRU TUE.
CONTINENTAL AIR LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTROL THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK... CUTTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLC W OF 60W...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM 31N71W THRU
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO SE CUBA NEAR 21N76.5W PAST THE CAYMANS
INTO NE HONDURAS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT IN THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE FRONT.  FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN TOMORROW AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HEADS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  20-25 KT WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NW OF THE
FRONT IN THE ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS.  FARTHER S...BROAD UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA
THRU PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W.
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE FRONT TO
15N W OF 60W.  ONLY A FEW TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N E OF 81W.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES OTHERWISE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TYPICAL
PATCHY TRADEWIND SHOWERS.  COLD FRONT SHOULDN'T MAKE TOO MUCH
MORE PROGRESS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN TO JAMAICA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO..
SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MID-LATITUDES RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N54W TO 24N65W.
FARTHER E... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE ATLC AROUND 31N25W TO
27N28W DISSIPATING TO 24N31W.  AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 29N.  IN
MID/UPPER LEVELS.. AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS.. WITH A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE ATLC... FROM 31N31W SW TO 10N54W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER THE ITCZ.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING FUNNELED FROM A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET FROM NEAR TRINIDAD
TO 6N46W TO NE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES.  TRADES ARE AT
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE W ATLC BUT REDUCED IN THE E ATLC DUE
TO THE FRONT'S PRESENCE.  BELOW AVERAGE TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE E ATLC FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST
TO FORM.

$$
BLAKE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net