[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N24W 4N41W 1N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 10W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 21W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
E OF 90W AND DRIER DEW POINTS. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E GULF
WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A 1008 MB LOW OVER NE TEXAS EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TO
THE N GULF COAST OF E LOUISIANA AND A COLD FRONT W ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT INTO
LATE TODAY INTO TUE WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS RAPIDLY
CROSSING THE GULF AND BE IN THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N73W NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO
THE W ATLC. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSS CUBA A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N76W EXTENDING TO E OF JAMAICA WHERE IT
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NW AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NE NICARAGUA
COAST. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FROM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS W OF
68W. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE AND THE TRADES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY WED...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FOR
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST OF THE US
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE STRONG ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING OVER THE S BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 23N73W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N LEAVING ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NARROWING UPPER
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC OVER
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 40N29W SW ALONG 23N35W TO A WEAKER
UPPER LOW NEAR 15N45W TO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N55W. ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR
32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 27N26W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR
23N30W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE ATLC S OF 26W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 90/120
NM E OF THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 30W-65W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
AFRICA COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 10N42W 18N32W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N13W.

$$
WALLACE



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