[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N21W 1N32W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 15W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N96W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 25N97W COVERING THE NW GULF W OF 92W. THE
SURFACE 1001 MB LOW IS OVER E/CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N97W WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTEND SE INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N92W TO 24N85W. THIS
IS SETTING UP A SCENARIO THAT GFS MODEL HAD BEEN FORECASTING
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NW GULF. SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM
90W-93W. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF/W
ATLC IS ADVECTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE W GULF W OF 86W.
ALL BUT THE E GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER E SOUTH AMERICA NW TO OVER E
CUBA AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE E
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N FROM
72W-84W. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS
THE W ATLC AND E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS E CUBA
TO BEYOND 32N78W COVERING THE ARE W OF 60W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE S OF 32N W OF 53W TO JUST OVER
FLORIDA. THE STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS
RETREATED N OF 28N FROM 47W-60W WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL
N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING SW 26N61W WEAKENING TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
22N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE AREA. AN
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES NE ALONG
26N42W TO BEYOND 32N42W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC E OF
45W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N36W...A 1023 MB HIGH E
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N13W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS IN THE NE ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N26W SSW OF 13N32W. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS BEING BRIDGE BY HIGH
SURFACE PRESS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N-24N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THAT AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG
THE PRIME MERIDIAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E
ATLC. DIFFLUENCE IS AIDED BY A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
130 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
10N27W NE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 27N13W. OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS JET TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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