[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N27W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO 6N FROM 10W TO
17W.  ELSEWHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND E US EAST OF 90W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS NEAR 80W.  THE RIDGE IS MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS.  A FRONT HAS
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A WARM FRONT IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM NEAR 23N85W NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.  A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT
TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT...GUSTING NEAR
30 KT WILL BLOW OVER THE GULF N OF 25N...AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE CITIES OF CIUDAD VICTORIA
AND MATAMOROS IN NE MEXICO ARE ALREADY REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF
30-35 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
IS OVER THE E GULF N OF 25N E OF 88W WHILE MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO...TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE EAST
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ATLC RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF
50W.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR
42N61W HAS HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N56W EXTENDING SW TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 30N. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ARE N OF 24W W
OF 50W COVERING ALSO MOST OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES NE TO BEYOND 32N40W.
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC
NEAR 28N40W AND COVERS THE AREA E OF 60W. NARROWING DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 31N23W SSW OF 10N40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE AND ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 31N20W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 7W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E ATLC. A JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 14N32W NE TO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA NEAR 29N10W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS.

$$
LL



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