[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N25W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS MOVING NE OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SSE TO 25N92W COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 25N W
OF 90W. THIS STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PRECEDING A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH CORRECTLY MOVING INTO W MEXICO AND TEXAS. COMPLEX SYSTEM
OF LOWS IS OVER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE INTO THE
GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO NEAR 26N91W. THIS IS A
RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYSTEM WITH A SQUALL LINE-LIKE AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 27N91W THEN
EXPANDING TO WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. RAPID CLEARING IS OBSERVED OVER THE FAR
NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF/W
ATLC COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF ARE
ADVECTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA...TO OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER E SOUTH AMERICA NW TO
OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM 70W-83W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 17N FROM 79W-83W. NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ON
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS
THE W ATLC AND FAR E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
HISPANIOLA N TO 33N76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE FROM 20N-32 BETWEEN
50W-78W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 28N
FROM 46W-60W WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W
EXTENDING SW TO 27N59W THEN PULLS UP STATIONARY TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 25N45W NE TO BEYOND 32N38W. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N35W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS IN THE NE ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N16W SW OF 14N28W. THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N20W EXTENDING SW TO 30N28W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM
14N-24N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA JUST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E ATLC. DIFFLUENCE IS AIDED
BY A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 15N24W NE TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA NEAR 24N15W. OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS JET TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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