[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N40W 1N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N70W PRODUCING 20-25 KT SELY SURFACE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SLIGHT RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT... A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE TEXAS
AND BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-90W PRODUCING WLY FLOW ...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...AND A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT... SIMILAR
WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N70W.  RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO 29N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N31W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N43W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
20W-55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 20W.  A
TROPICAL WIND MAXIMA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA ALONG
10N30W TO BEYOND 20N15W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA




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