[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N8W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W CURVING TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD...FROM 5N TO 20N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 31N108W NEAR THE BORDERS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO/THE FAR WEST TEXAS/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENT AREAS OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE
WEST OF 92W...AND NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD
TO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N100W.
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD INTO
MEXICO NEAR 28N100W...AND THEN IT CURVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 25N TO 26N. THE COLD FRONT
GOES FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N/29N ALONG 101W
TO 26N104W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TEXAS NORTH OF
30N EAST OF 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS THE MOST PROMINENT
FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM VENEZUELA TO ANGUILLA.
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...
INCLUDING MOVING INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 30N61W TO 25N67W TO 19N68W AT THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.
THIS TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 30N45W TO 26N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA/JET
STREAM RUNS FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS THE GUYANAS INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W...CYCLONIC FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W...
ANTICYCLONIC FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 14W AND 27W...AND CYCLONIC
ACROSS MAURITANIA INTO NORTHWESTERN MALI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALREADY EXISTS OR IS FORMING
NEAR 15N32W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 20N EAST OF 40W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW RUNS FROM MOROCCO TO
MAURITANIA. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N45W.

$$
MT




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