[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N30W 5N40W 2N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N71W PRODUCING 20-25 KT SELY SURFACE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE GULF E OF 87W.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SLIGHT RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT... A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE TEXAS
AND BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  NO AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE SEEN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N BETWEEN
60W-90W PRODUCING WLY FLOW ...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND A LACK OF
HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT... SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N71W.  RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO 28N60W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA ALONG 25N70W 21N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N43W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
20W-55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 20W.  A
TROPICAL WIND MAXIMA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA ALONG
10N30W TO BEYOND 20N15W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA



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